3/14/2024
Over the years, our small food business customers have asked us to provide them with more market condition information so that they can better prepare for upcoming business needs. The current product at the top of most importers' minds is black pepper from Vietnam.
In 2023, Vietnam produced 220,000 metric tonnes (MT) of black pepper, and exported 270,000MT. Vietnam has historically supplemented its exports by importing pepper from Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Cambodia. This year's Vietnam pepper crop came in at a much lower weight, measuring only 170,000MT. This may cause some ongoing price pressures in the months ahead, but we remain optimistic as we hear that China will likely export black pepper to compensate for this expected shortfall.
In the past six months, the price of Indian cumin has significantly increased. This has led more Indian farmers to increase production to maximize profitability from their land. Prices will remain tight for the next several months, but once the expected, large cumin harvest comes in, a fairly significant market correction is expected and there should be some relief in cumin prices.
India has also experienced a strong fennel seed harvest, so prices should remain favorable for the foreseeable future. Turmeric plantings are down 20-25% over last year, so prices on the higher grade are expected to remain steady.
Due to excessive rain during the wrong points of the growing season, Indian chile peppers continue to have some challenges. Higher-heat chiles are proving harder to source, and the price continues to climb due to this scarcity. We also see that persistent drought conditions in Mexico and the Southwestern US have continued to push these chile pepper prices upward.
2/8/2024
Over the last 8 months the price of cumin has hit an all-time high thanks to unseasonal rains that damaged the 2023 cumin harvest. Despite high prices, demand for cumin has remained robust and Indian farmers increased their planting acreage by 300%. The recent Indian harvest has come in strong, and prices are expected to drop in the next 60 days to below historical averages.
Vietnamese black pepper production is expected to decrease between 10-15% in comparison to 2023’s harvest and will provide the lowest export volume of the last 5 years. Prices have remained elevated while demand continues to rise. Pricing is complicated by the approach of Tet, during which much of the country shuts down for 6-10 days. There is also the concern about rising freight costs thanks to the need to reroute shipping in response to the Red Sea Crisis. Pricing is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future.
The El Niño weather phenomenon has wreaked havoc on Mexican agriculture, with more than 80% of the country being affected by lack of water. Mexican oregano and annatto prices will remain high due to these persistent drought conditions, and El Niño is expected to impact weather patterns until at least April.
Guatemala has also been impacted by drought because of El Niño, which has caused weak harvests and high prices for Guatemalan cardamom. The first Indian cardamom harvest has begun with mixed results; some Indian cardamom-growing areas were impacted by a lack of rain during specific growing stages, while others experienced higher-than-expected harvests. Higher prices are expected to fall, though it’s important to monitor crop stability in these areas.
1/18/2024
The 2023 US garlic harvest was completed at the end of October. Overall, production came in slightly lower than planned, which has resulted in prices going up slightly.
The sowing of the 2023-24 Indian Turmeric crop decreased by 40% compared to 2022-23; this led to prices doubling in July and August of 2023, and prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
Stocks of Indonesian cloves remain tight; they are the world’s largest producer and the largest consumer of cloves, but Indonesian crops have declined nearly 40% since 2021, and they have begun importing from Africa.
Due to drier-than-predicted conditions in Guatemala, expectations for the upcoming cardamom crop have been lowered, and prices are beginning to surge.
Vietnam’s black pepper harvest starts this month, and its export volume is expected to be down 10-15%. Brazil faces a dry season linked with El Niño, which will negatively impact its upcoming black pepper crop and reduce its production in 2024.